In a series of six papers appearing this week in the journal Critical Care Medicine, we have one of the largest-ever real-world evidence studies using diverse Medicare fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage data. Sepsis-related admissions rose 40% during a period when the Medicare program grew 22%.
Costs per year are in the $50B range while six-month mortality is 60% for septic shock and 36% for severe sepsis. Comorbidities like cancer market elevate the mortality statistics. (Medicare benefit payments in 2018 were $730B).
The articles appear in the March 2020 issues of Critical Care Medicine, timed with the 49th Annual Critical Care Conference being held in Orlando. In addition, the set of articles triggered a lengthy press release from the Department of Health and Human Services, including comments from BARDA head and study co-author Dr. Rick Bright.
(For those who track Washington and infectious disease, note that the President's Advisory Council on antibiotic resistances, PAC-CARB, is meeting later this month - here.)
The Six Papers
All three of the main data analysis papers, clocking in at 13, 13, and 17 pages, are first-authored by Dr. Timothy Buchman, a prolific academic who is also professor of anesthesiology and professor of surgery at Emory. Several BARDA staff are also co-authors, along with staff at the Bay Area consultancy ACUMEN.
The three main papers are titled:
Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries:
1. The Burdens of Sepsis (48:276)
2. The Trajectories of Sepsis (48:289)
3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis (48:302)
Note that the same issue of the journal also includes two adjacent articles on the mortality and trajectory of pediatric septic shock, Zimmerman et al. (48:319, 48:329).
On the Buchman et al. Medicare publications, see also a set of three Op Eds. The first is by Rhee et al. on the "eye popping costs of sepsis" (48:420); the second by Levy on the use of big data (48:422); and the third by Busch et al. on the amount of data coaxed out of Medicare claims from diverse data sets (48:424).
On a special visualization page, click down the left headers for data views. See toggle settings on the right.
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Trade Press and HHS's Press Release
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The HHS press release brings together CMS and HHS/BARDA voices, is fairly lengthy at 1300 words. The press release uses the data as a springboard for noting CMS efforts in quality of care improvement, CMS payment advances for antibiotics, BARDA investments in sepsis, and CDC investments in antibiotic and sepsis issues. The press release also links through to DRIVE, a BARDA biotechnology investment program that includes diagnostics for sepsis (here).
For example, the press release states: "CMS continues to clear away regulatory obstacles and financial disincentives that have long inhibited the development of life-saving antibiotics capable of treating sepsis patients. Patients suffering from sepsis deserve to see America’s full innovative potential mobilized to address this devastating condition.”
Another quote: "Most patients with sepsis arrived at the hospital with the condition, rather than developing sepsis in the hospital, a possible indicator of success for CMS efforts to reduce hospital-based cases of sepsis [iatrogenic infection]."
HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Dr. Robert Kadlec states, “Any infection can lead to sepsis, including infections caused by influenza or emerging diseases like coronaviruses, which makes sepsis a significant concern in public health emergencies.”
For a trade press story at Fierce Healthcare, here.
Since the papers are all open-access, I've also bundled them in a cloud zip file, here.